Patriots at Dolphins prediction, Week 8: simulated score, win chances and touchdown picks

Numbers as published Oct 30, 2026 at 6:03 PM Central. The live board updates after injury news and locks each game at kickoff.

SharpTrack played this game 30,000 times, drive by drive. MIA wins 29% of the simulations and NE 71%; the average score is NE 25.1, MIA 18.1. The betting line has MIA a 7.0-point underdog with a total of 43.5.

Most likely Patriots touchdown scorers

Rhamondre Stevenson (RB): 44%. Workload: 10.2 carries and 3.1 targets a game, 62% of snaps.
A.J. Brown (WR): 35%. Workload: 7.8 targets a game, 83% of snaps, snaps up 8 points last game.
Hunter Henry (TE): 28%. Workload: 4.9 targets a game, 74% of snaps.

Most likely Dolphins touchdown scorers

Ollie Gordon II (RB): 33%. Workload: 10.8 carries and 1.1 targets a game, 46% of snaps, snaps up 37 points last game.
Malik Willis (QB): 27%. Workload: 5.6 carries a game, 81% of snaps, snaps up 19 points last game.
Malik Washington (WR): 23%. Workload: 1.3 carries and 5.2 targets a game, 75% of snaps.

Every player in this game, prop ranges and the full simulation