Chiefs at Broncos prediction, Week 8: simulated score, win chances and touchdown picks

Numbers as published Oct 30, 2026 at 6:03 PM Central. The live board updates after injury news and locks each game at kickoff.

SharpTrack played this game 30,000 times, drive by drive. DEN wins 45% of the simulations and KC 55%; the average score is KC 21.0, DEN 19.6. The betting line has DEN a 1.5-point underdog with a total of 40.5.

Most likely Chiefs touchdown scorers

Kenneth Walker III (RB): 52%. Workload: 17.0 carries and 3.6 targets a game, 65% of snaps, snaps up 9 points last game.
Travis Kelce (TE): 24%. Workload: 6.1 targets a game, 81% of snaps.
Xavier Worthy (WR): 20%. Workload: 5.5 targets a game, 80% of snaps.

Most likely Broncos touchdown scorers

J.K. Dobbins (RB): 26%. Workload: 13.4 carries and 1.4 targets a game, 44% of snaps, snaps down 21 points last game.
RJ Harvey (RB): 25%. Workload: 6.6 carries and 4.1 targets a game, 42% of snaps, snaps down 16 points last game.
Jonah Coleman (RB): 22%. Workload: 6.8 carries and 1.8 targets a game, 34% of snaps, snaps up 15 points last game.

Every player in this game, prop ranges and the full simulation